In recent years, the tariffs imposed by the United States—one of the major actors in global trade—have not only affected macroeconomic balances but also deeply impacted individual sellers and digital entrepreneurs on a micro scale. Especially the new taxes and quotas on China-based manufacturers have created a domino effect in the e-commerce ecosystem. For rising producer and supplier countries like Türkiye, this wave presents both risks and opportunities.
In this article, I aim to evaluate the short, medium, and long-term effects of U.S. tariffs while sharing some of my observations and suggestions on which strategic areas Türkiye should focus on, particularly in terms of cross-border e-commerce.
Short Term: Supply Chains Shaken, Demand Shifting
Since 2018, U.S. tariffs initially targeted Chinese manufacturers selling on platforms like Amazon and eBay. Especially for Chinese sellers operating on low margins, the price advantage quickly vanished. As a result, U.S. consumers faced more expensive products—creating a new window of opportunity for Türkiye.
Turkish manufacturers and brands started showing greater interest in directly selling to the U.S. market, and we saw a notable increase in Turkish seller registrations on Amazon.com. Despite logistics challenges, the ‘Made in Türkiye’ perception began to gain consumer trust, particularly in categories like textiles, accessories, and home décor.
But let me emphasize one point: not every seller that entered during this opportunity wave acted with a sustainable strategy. Some ventures, chasing short-term profits, harmed market potential due to failures in customer satisfaction, high return rates, and logistics issues. For those seeking to stay long-term, this first wave was a testing phase.
Mid Term: Türkiye’s Competitive Edge Could Strengthen
Assuming that the U.S. sanctions against China are a ‘process,’ the most critical factor for Türkiye in the medium term is to increase production capacity and optimize the price-quality balance. Türkiye is not the only one trying to fill the gap left by China—Vietnam, India, and Mexico are also in the race.
What sets us apart: strategic geographic location (bridge between Europe and Asia), short delivery times (e.g., 7–10 days to the U.S.), capability for low-volume customized production, and a strong creative sector (design, brand language, photography, etc.).
Companies leveraging these strengths can establish brand loyalty in the medium term by reaching American consumers directly through not only Amazon but also their own Shopify stores. Of course, this requires a solid logistics infrastructure, effective tax planning, and well-executed marketing moves.
By 2025–2026, it will be increasingly common to see Turkish brands setting up their own fulfillment centers in the U.S. As Amazon’s storage costs continue to rise, Turkish firms running independent operations will have a greater chance to differentiate on customer experience.
Long Term: From Political Risk to Strategic Advantage
Let me state this clearly: U.S. tariffs will become a permanent foreign policy tool. Trade is no longer just trade—it’s a diplomatic domain shaped by political relations. Under these conditions, countries like Türkiye, strategically located, must prioritize trade agreements, customs exemptions, and being positioned as a ‘trusted partner.’
Our long-term goals should include: acquiring local manufacturing licenses in the U.S. (e.g., through contract manufacturing), increasing cross-border e-commerce support via public-private partnerships, developing U.S.-specific products (compatible with both online and offline retail), and building networks of investors and local partners.
At this point, I believe state supports like Turquality should evolve to be more digitally focused. Today, many Turkish brands growing in the U.S. market do so through individual efforts—there’s a gap in collective support systems. If we bridge this gap, Türkiye can transition from being a seller to a significant player in the U.S. market.
Final Word: Are Tariffs a Barrier or a Lever?
Every crisis, when interpreted correctly, is an opportunity. While U.S. tariffs reshape the nature of global e-commerce, Türkiye—with its production strength, design intelligence, and digital transformation steps—has the potential to emerge as one of the winners.
But to realize this potential, we need time, strategy, and consistency. Instead of sprinting in the short term, we must adopt a mindset ready for the marathon. Most importantly, we must shift from merely ‘selling products’ to ‘building brands.’
Even if tariffs close some doors, we can learn to open new ones—with the right keys.
